A Study to Compare 3 Doses of a Hormonal Intra-uterine Device Containing Levonorgestrel and Indomethacin With a Hormonal Intra-uterine Device Containing Only Levonorgestrel to Assess the Effect and Safety of the Combined Components

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerknowncarcinomasitucervical
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmascreeninginvestigatehealthyacting
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 32.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 785 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 120 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14163 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• To Investigate the Pharmacological Effects, Drug Blood Levels and Safety of an Intrauterine System Releasing the Study Drug BAY1007626 in Comparison to Mirena and Jaydess in Healthy Young Women Treated for 90 Days to Determine the Drug Dose for Further Development NCT02490774 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated
• Effect of Concomitant Use of an Antimycotic, an Antibiotic, a Spermicide or Tampons on Pharmacokinetics of Anastrozole and Levonorgestrel Released From Intra-vaginal Ring NCT02545452 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Pharmacokinetic Study to Evaluate the Bioequivalence of 2 Progesterone Vaginal Rings in Postmenopausal Women NCT02092571 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of 3 Dosages of Estriol After Continuous Vaginal Administration for 21 Days NCT03363997 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Study in Healthy Tubal Ligated Women to Evaluate Pharmacodynamics, Safety and Pharmacokinetics of BAY1002670 NCT01816815 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.