Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Yi-Gan San in Children and Adolescents With Tourette's Disorder

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: disordertrialthe subjectschizophreniadsm
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsmalehas historyfemalemedicine
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 32 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 53 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 6 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic, and Efficacy Study of AZD5213 in Adolescents With Tourette's Disorder NCT01904773 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Alternatives for Reducing Tics in Tourette Syndrome (TS): A Study of TEV-50717 (Deutetrabenazine) for the Treatment of Tourette Syndrome in Children and Adolescents NCT03452943 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of NBI-98854 in Pediatric Subjects With Tourette Syndrome NCT03530293 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy & Safety Study of Once-weekly Oral Aripiprazole in Children and Adolescents With Tourette's Disorder (TD) NCT01418352 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test if TEV-50717 is Effective in Relieving Tics Associated With Tourette Syndrome (TS) NCT03571256 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.