IRELAnD: Investigating the Role of Early Low-dose Aspirin in Diabetes
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-08-25, after 2018-09-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: pregnancypretermdiabetestypeonset
Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofinvestigatepatientrandomised -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 61643 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 10 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 412911 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 61643 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 72.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- aspirin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effectiveness of Higher Aspirin Dosing for Prevention of Preeclampsia in High Risk Obese Gravida NCT03961360 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
- Combined Multi-marker Screening and Treatment With Aspirin for Pre-eclampsia Prevention NCT02301780 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Low Doses of Aspirin in the Prevention of Preeclampsia NCT04070573 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Effect of Low Dose Aspirin on Birthweight in Twins: The GAP Trial. NCT02280031 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Antenatal Platelet Response on Aspirin: a Pharmacokinetic Study Through Pregnancy NCT04645004 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.