Durvalumab, Tremelimumab, and Selumetinib in Treating Participants With Recurrent or Stage IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bowelreceivingpatientsstablecoronary
  Phrases that lowered it: participantslunghcvclinicalnon small
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3367 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Selumetinib and Paclitaxel as Second-Line Treatment in Treating Patients With Stage IIIB-IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02503358 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Phase IB Study to Evaluate the Safety of Selinexor (KPT-330) in Combination With Multiple Standard Chemotherapy or Immunotherapy Agents in Patients With Advanced Malignancies NCT02419495 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
• A Trial of Durvalumab and Tremelimumab in Combination With SBRT in Patients With Metastatic Cancer NCT03212469 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Anti-tumour Activity of Ascending Doses of Selumetinib in Combination With MEDI4736 and Selumetinib in Combination With MEDI4736 and Tremelimumab in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumours NCT02586987 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Durvalumab and Grid Therapy for Non-small Cell Lung Cancer in Progression During or After Treatment With PACIFIC Regimen NCT05443971 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.