Trial of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy With S1 Plus Paclitaxel-albumin on Pancreatic Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-07-01, after 2017-11-20 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: pancreaticcancerchemotherapyheartdl
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatediseasescoronarythe upper -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 34111 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6235 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- gimeracil, oteracil, paclitaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Chemoradiotherapy With Gemcitabine/S-1 vs Gemcitabine/S-1 for Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT01430052 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Nab-Paclitaxel Plus S-1 in the First-line Treatment of Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT03415802 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Nab-paclitaxel Combined With Gemcitabine as Adjuvant Therapy for Pancreatic Cancer After Curative Resection NCT02023021 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Trial to Investigate Intensified Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT02125136 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- A Phase II Study of S-1 Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Patients With Resected Pancreatic Cancer in Taiwan NCT04070313 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.