Vitamin B Complex and Diabetic Nephropathy in Type 1 Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 53.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 110 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: vitamindiseasenephropathyevidencetherapy for
  Phrases that lowered it: with typecriteria patientstype diabetestrialfood
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 85 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effects of Treating Vitamin D Deficiency in Poorly Controlled Type 2 Diabetes NCT01855321 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Intervention Using Vitamin D for Elevated Urinary Albumin Treated With Losartan in Diabetes (IDEAL) NCT02410005 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• Effect of Folic Acid and Vitamin B12 Supplementation in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT02786823 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Effect of Vitamin D Supplementation on Blood Pressure and HbA1c Levels in Patients With T2D NCT01585051 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• The Effects of Vitamin D Repletion in Vitamin D Deficient Patients With Stage 3 and 4 Chronic Kidney Disease NCT01029002 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.