Sodium Oxybate in Idiopathic Hypersomnia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (112 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 29.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapypatientdiseaseheartdeprivation
  Phrases that lowered it: visitthe efficacybetween 18efficacy andrelevant
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 40.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 68 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 154 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 45076 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Multicenter Study of the Efficacy and Safety of JZP-258 in the Treatment of Idiopathic Hypersomnia (IH) With an Open-label Safety Extension NCT03533114 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• A Study of a Single Intravenous Infusion Dose of TAK-925 in Participants With Idiopathic Hypersomnia NCT04091438 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Once-Nightly Sodium Oxybate for Treatment of Excessive Daytime Sleepiness and Cataplexy in Narcolepsy NCT02720744 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Study of SDX in Patients With Idiopathic Hypersomnia (IH) NCT05668754 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Patient Narcoleptic Treated With BF2.649 (Pitolisant) in add-on to Sodium Oxybate (HARMONY IV) NCT01789398 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.