A Placebo-Controlled Study of the Safety of INCB054707 in Participants With Hidradenitis Suppurativa
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-08-13, after 2018-10-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 49.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: at screeninghcvheartdefinedpresence of
Phrases that lowered it: participantssafety ofweekantibodyskin -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 47 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 49 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 49 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 49.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 47 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- povorcitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of the Safety of INCB054707 in Participants With Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT03569371 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- To Assess the Efficacy and Safety of INCB054707 in Participants With Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT04476043 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- ATI-450 vs Placebo in Participants With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS) NCT05216224 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of BDB-001 Injection in Patients With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS) NCT05103423 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Studying Complement Inhibition in Patients With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT03001622 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.