Single Treatment of DaxibotulinumtoxinA for Injection in Adults With Isolated Cervical Dystonia (ASPEN-1)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: typecervicalsubjects withprimarysclerosis
  Phrases that lowered it: adultsand safetymoderateevaluate thesafety of
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose-escalating Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of DaxibotulinumtoxinA for Injection in Cervical Dystonia NCT02706795 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Long-Term Safety and Efficacy of Repeat Treatments of DaxibotulinumtoxinA for Injection in Adults With Isolated Cervical Dystonia (ASPEN-OLS) NCT03617367 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ABP-450 in the Treatment of Cervical Dystonia NCT04849988 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial to Compare the Safety and Efficacy of Botulax® Versus Botox® in Patients With Cervical Dystonia NCT04171258 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Study for Determine the Safety and Efficacy of Clostridium Botulinum Toxin Type A in Subjects With Cervical Dystonia NCT01588574 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.