Evaluation of the Efficacy of the Injection of Botulinum Toxin A vs Scopolamine Patches in the Treatment of Drooling in Children With Cerebral Palsy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-09-22, after 2022-04-27 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 105 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 421 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 4 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 4 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 18 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 421 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 105 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Clinical Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of NT 201 Compared to Placebo in the Treatment of Chronic Troublesome Drooling Associated With Neurological Disorders and/or Intellectual Disability NCT02270736 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Phase III Clinical Trial of Botulax® to Treat Children With Cerebral Palsy NCT01787344 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Botulinum Toxin A in the Treatment of Bruxism-related Symptomatology NCT04722809 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
- Toxin Treatment for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) Related Sialorrhea NCT01551940 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- Botulinum Toxin-A as a Treatment for Chronic Muscle-Related Pain in Adults With Spastic Cerebral Palsy: a Randomized Controlled Trial NCT02434549 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.