The Effect of Colistin Inhalation on Ventilator Associated Pneumonia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-01-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientsearlycreatinineassociatedhours
  Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofthe clinicalsignsinhalation
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 68746 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nebulized and Intravenous Colistin in Ventilator Associated-pneumonia NCT02906722 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Study Comparing Inhaled Amikacin Versus Placebo to Prevent Ventilator Associated Pneumonia NCT03149640 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• A Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic Dose Comparison Study of 8 mg/kg of Inhaled or Parenteral Gentamicin in 12 Mechanically Ventilated Critically Ill Patients Treated for Ventilator-associated Pneumonia NCT02515448 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Aerosolized Plus Intravenous vs. Intravenous Colistin for VAP Due to Pandrugs-resistant A. Baumannii in Neonates NCT02806141 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Trials to Reduce the Risk of Antimicrobial Resistance NCT01570192 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.