Systemic Corticosteroids Avoidance Study in Severe Asthma Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-02-06, after 2018-12-13 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-02-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebolungenrollmentdoublerandomization
Phrases that lowered it: asthmafev1once dailydiseasesrespiratory -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1178 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 155 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 10 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 84 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1178 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 155 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- fevipiprant
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- An Evaluation Of PF-03715455 In Moderate To Severe Uncontrolled Asthma NCT02219048 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
- Study of FlutiForm® Versus Fluticasone Plus Formoterol in Adult Subjects With Severe Asthma NCT00734318 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Comparative Study Between Foraseq and Formoterol/Budesonide Inhalation Capsules in Patients with Asthma NCT01001364 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Asthma Exacerbation Study NCT01086384 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- A Study Comparative of Formoterol/Fluticasone Foraseq® and Fluticasone in Asthma Patients NCT01202084 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.