Standard Chemotherapy vs. Chemotherapy Guided by Cancer Stem Cell Test in Recurrent Glioblastoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercellchemotherapylong termbrain
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsresponsethe upperhistorymm3
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of VAL-083 in Patients With MGMT Unmethylated, Bevacizumab-naive Glioblastoma in the Adjuvant or Recurrent Setting NCT02717962 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Feasibility of Individualized Therapy for Recurrent Glioblastoma NCT03681028 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• TPI 287 in Patients With Recurrent Glioblastoma Multiforme NCT01113463 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Standard Dose Bevacizumab Versus Low Dose Bevacizumab Plus Lomustine (CCNU) for Recurrent Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM) NCT01067469 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A Proof-of-concept Clinical Trial Assessing the Safety of the Coordinated Undermining of Survival Paths by 9 Repurposed Drugs Combined With Metronomic Temozolomide (CUSP9v3 Treatment Protocol) for Recurrent Glioblastoma NCT02770378 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.