Investigating the Efficacy of Ergothioneine to Delay Cognitive Decline (Pilot)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (121 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: braincellcognitivedementiaability
  Phrases that lowered it: mildsubjectsimpairmentstudy toindividuals
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 41 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study Evaluating TRx0237 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT01689246 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study Evaluating TRx0237 in Subjects With Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT01689233 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of Antioxidant (AT-001)for Reducing Brain Oxidative Stress NCT01731093 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of E2609 in Subjects With Mild Cognitive Impairment or Mild Dementia Due to Alzheimer's Disease (Study: E2609-A001-101 Amendment 02) NCT01600859 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of TRx0237 in Patients Already Taking Medications for Mild and Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT01626391 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.