Paracetamol And Ibuprofen/Indomethacin in Closing Patent Ductus Arteriosus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (141 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: purposetrialpretermplacebo controlledare eligible
  Phrases that lowered it: hypertensionpulmonaryand safetyefficacy andsignificant
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 533109 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 104941 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 0.33 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Adding Paracetamol to Ibuprofen for Treatment of Patent Ductus Arteriosus in Preterm Infants NCT02002741 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Randomized Controlled Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Acetaminophen in Preterm Infants Used in Combination With Ibuprofen for Closure of the Ductus Arteriosus NCT03701074 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Paracetamol Versus Ibuprofen in Premature Infants With Hemodynamically Significant Patent Ductus Arteriosus NCT04037514 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• No Treatment Versus Oral Ibuprofen Treatment for Patent Ductus Arteriosus in Preterm Infants NCT02128191 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Paracetamol in Patent Ductus Arteriosus NCT02422966 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.