Study to Assess the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Efficacy of Baloxavir Marboxil in Healthy Pediatric Participants From Birth to < 1 Year With Influenza-Like Symptoms

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hoursonsettherapydiseasepharmacokinetics and
  Phrases that lowered it: influenzahealthyscreeningvaccineparticipants
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 125 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1054 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Efficacy of Baloxavir Marboxil in Healthy Pediatric Participants With Influenza-Like Symptoms NCT03629184 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Efficacy of Baloxavir Marboxil in Chinese Pediatric Participants 1 to <12 Years of Age With Influenza Symptoms NCT06774859 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Baloxavir Marboxil In Combination With Standard-of-Care Neuraminidase Inhibitor In Hospitalized Participants With Severe Influenza NCT03684044 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study of S-033188 (Baloxavir Marboxil) Compared With Placebo or Oseltamivir in Otherwise Healthy Patients With Influenza NCT02954354 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Baloxavir in Combination With Oseltamivir in Allogenic Bone Marrow Transplant Recipients With Influenza NCT05170009 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.