An Evaluation of the Safety and Efficacy of Nitazoxanide on Collagen Turnover in NASH Patients With Fibrosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (136 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: kidneychronicstagepriorto screening
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateabnormalalcoholhistory or
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 39.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: basic science (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 1 Study to Evaluate Safety of GR-MD-02 in Subjects With Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) and Advanced Fibrosis NCT01899859 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate How Ontamalimab Works and Assess Its Safety and Tolerability in People With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis With Fibrosis Stages 1 to 4 NCT07052682 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Selonsertib, Firsocostat, and Cilofexor in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT02781584 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test Safety and Efficacy of Survodutide (BI456906) in Adults With Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) and Fibrosis (F1-F3) NCT04771273 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Inarigivir in Non-cirrhotic Treatment Naive Subjects Infected With Hepatitis B Virus NCT04059198 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.