Study the Efficacy and Safety of VAY736 and CFZ533 in SLE Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 27% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-04-28, after 2018-12-19 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellsubjects withscoreplacebodisease
Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticspharmacodynamicsevaluate theto evaluatedmard -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1178 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 154 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 10 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1178 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 154 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ianalumab, iscalimab, vay736
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety of Efavaleukin Alfa in Subjects With Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT04680637 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety of Anifrolumab Compared to Placebo in Adult Subjects With Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02446899 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Two Doses of Anifrolumab Compared to Placebo in Adult Subjects With Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02446912 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Preliminary Efficacy Study of CFZ533 in Patients With Lupus Nephritis. NCT03610516 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Clarification of Abatacept Effects in SLE With Integrated Biologic and Clinical Approaches NCT02270957 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.