An Open-label, 8-week Safety, Efficacy, and Assessment of Cooling Methods for Administration of CNTX-4975-05 for Knee OA

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (114 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painmoderate toto severechronicdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsindexkneescreeningopen label
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 95377 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15174 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 3 Efficacy and Safety Study of Intra-articular CNTX-4975-05 (Capsaicin) vs Placebo in Subjects With OA Knee Pain NCT03429049 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Test Efficacy and Safety of Repeat Doses of CNTX-4975-05 in Patients With Osteoarthritis Knee Pain NCT03660943 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of CNTX-4975 in Subjects With Chronic, Moderate to Severe Osteoarthritis Knee Pain NCT02558439 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of CNTX-6970 in Subjects With Knee Osteoarthritis Pain. NCT05025787 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Study of Intra-articular Injections vs Placebo in Patients With Pain From Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT01887678 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.