Efficacy and Steroid Sparing Potential Study of DGLA Cream in Early Childhood Patients With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientpatientspriorstableuncontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: dermatitisatopictopicalvehicleday
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 1 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Steroid Sparing Potential Study of DGLA Cream in Patients With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03676036 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Topically Applied DS107 Cream in Mild to Moderate Atopic Dermatitis Patients (AD) NCT02925793 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Dose-ranging Trial to Evaluate Delgocitinib Cream 1, 3, 8, and 20 mg/g Compared to Delgocitinib Cream Vehicle Over an 8-week Treatment Period in Adult Subjects With Atopic Dermatitis. NCT03725722 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Orally Administered DS107 in Adult Patients With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03817190 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated
• Oral DS107 in Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT02211417 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.