A Phase 1/2 Trial of Multiple Oral Doses of OPC-167832 for Uncomplicated Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (118 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tolerability pharmacokineticssafety tolerabilitystagelungdisorders
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsscreeningevaluate thepharmacokineticsopen label
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 165 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Evaluation of 4-month Regimen of OPC-167832, Delamanid and Bedaquiline in Participants With Drug-Susceptible Pulmonary TB NCT05221502 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Evaluate OPC 67683 in Participants With Pulmonary Sputum Culture-positive, Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis (TB) NCT00685360 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Orally Administered OPC-67683 NCT02573350 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Trial to Evaluate the Early Bactericidal Activity, Safety and Tolerability of Meropenem Plus Amoxycillin/CA and Faropenem Plus Amoxycillin/CA in Adult Patients With Newly Diagnosed Pulmonary Tuberculosis NCT02349841 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Safety and Pharmacokinetics (PK) in Multidrug-Resistant (MDR) Refractive Tuberculosis NCT01131351 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.