Alvelestat (MPH966) for the Treatment of ALpha-1 ANTitrypsin Deficiency

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (143 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celllungdiseasetherapyeligible
  Phrases that lowered it: participanteffect ofscreeningsubjectsparticipants
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 120 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 333 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III, Efficacy and Safety of Kamada-AAT for Inhalation NCT04204252 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
• A Study of ARC-AAT in Healthy Volunteer Subjects and Patients With Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency (AATD) NCT02363946 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials terminated
• International Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Inhaled, Human, Alpha-1 Antitrypsin (AAT) in Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficient Patients With Emphysema NCT01217671 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Phase II, Safety and Efficacy Study of Kamada-alpha-1-antitrypsin (AAT) for Inhalation NCT02001688 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Itraconazole Administered as Inhaled Dry Powder in Adults With Asthma and ABPA NCT05667662 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.