Comparing Cyclophosphamide and Abatacept With Standard of Care Treatment Following Stem Cell Transplantation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chroniccelldonoramlmalignancy
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomamultiplehepaticgoodcriteria patients
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 529490 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 91334 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Cyclophosphamide Versus Anti-thymocyte Globulin for GVHD Prophylaxis After RIC Allo-SCT NCT02876679 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Pilot of Abatacept-based Immunosuppression for Prevention of Acute GvHD During Unrelated Donor HCT NCT01012492 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Busulfan and Fludarabine Followed by Post-transplant Cyclophosphamide NCT00800839 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Post Transplant Cyclophosphamide (Cytoxan) for GvHD Prophylaxis NCT02065154 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Alemtuzumab and Cyclosporine for the Prevention of Graft vs Host Disease After Stem Cell Transplants NCT00775632 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.