Phase 2b Dose-ranging Trial to Evaluate Delgocitinib Cream 1, 3, 8, and 20 mg/g Compared to Delgocitinib Cream Vehicle Over a 16-week Treatment Period in Adult Subjects With Chronic Hand Eczema

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapychronictreatmentpriorrequiring
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningthe trialtopicalevaluate theto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 141 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Delgocitinib Cream in Adults With Moderate to Severe Chronic Hand Eczema (DELTA 2) NCT04872101 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Delgocitinib Cream in Adults With Moderate to Severe Chronic Hand Eczema NCT04871711 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Delgocitinib Cream in Adolescents 12-17 Years of Age With Moderate to Severe Chronic Hand Eczema NCT05355818 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A 24 Week Trial to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Delgocitinib Cream 20 mg/g Twice-daily With Alitretinoin Capsules Once-daily in Adult Participants With Severe Chronic Hand Eczema NCT05259722 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetics of Delgocitinib 20 mg/g Cream in Subjects With Chronic Hand Eczema NCT05486117 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.