Effect of Evolocumab on Coronary Atherosclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: coronaryarteryanginacardiacplaque
  Phrases that lowered it: effect ofevaluatelabelallergyhistory
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 46 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 302231 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 62344 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• GLobal Assessment of Plaque reGression With a PCSK9 antibOdy as Measured by intraVascular Ultrasound NCT01813422 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Imaging of Coronary Plaques in Participants Treated With Evolocumab NCT03570697 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research With PCSK9 Inhibition in Subjects With Elevated Risk NCT01764633 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Vascular Effects of Alirocumab in Acute MI-Patients NCT03067844 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Effects on Lipoprotein Metabolism From PCSK9 Inhibition Utilizing a Monoclonal Antibody NCT02189837 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.