Safety and Efficacy of Nivolumab in Treating Oral Proliferative Verrucous Leukoplakia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celllungpatientsstagesurgery
  Phrases that lowered it: lesionsimmunotherapysubjectparticipantstobacco
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 95 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 290 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11008 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Induction TPN Followed by Nivolumab With Radiation in Locoregionally Advanced Laryngeal and Hypopharyngeal Cancer NCT03894891 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• CA209-891: Neoadjuvant and Adjuvant Nivolumab as Immune Checkpoint Inhibition in Oral Cavity Cancer NCT03721757 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Chemotherapy and Locoregional Therapy Trial (Surgery or Radiation) for Patients With Head and Neck Cancer NCT03107182 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Study of PDS0101 and Pembrolizumab in HPV16+ Recurrent/Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT06790966 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
• Nivolumab and HPV-16 Vaccination in Patients With HPV-16 Positive Incurable Solid Tumors NCT02426892 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.