A Study to Evaluate SAGE-217 in Participants With Bipolar I/II Disorder With a Current Major Depressive Episode

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: the treatmenttreatment ofiiand efficacybipolar
  Phrases that lowered it: participantpharmacokineticsparticipantsopen labelsafety
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 246 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate SAGE-217 in Participants With Moderate to Severe Major Depressive Disorder NCT03000530 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate SAGE-217 in Adult Participants With Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) NCT03864614 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of SAGE-217 in the Treatment of Adult Participants With Major Depressive Disorder NCT03672175 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate SAGE-217 for Prevention of Relapse in Adult Participants With Major Depressive Disorder NCT04007367 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of Sage-217 in the Treatment of Adult Participants With Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) NCT04442490 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.