IMRT-TMI With Fludarabine as Myeloablative Conditioning for Allogeneic HSCT

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationdonorchronicleukemiato determine
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsblood20normal valueclinical study
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 37.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 14599 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Reduced Intensity Regimen vs Myeloablative Regimen for Myeloid Leukemia or Myelodysplastic Syndrome (BMT CTN 0901) NCT01339910 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
• Thiotepa Plus Fludarabine+ Melphalan as the Preparative Regime for Alternative Donor Transplantation NCT03342196 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Targeted Marrow Irradiation, Fludarabine Phosphate, and Busulfan Before Donor Progenitor Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Hematologic Malignancies NCT02129582 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Conditioning Treatment With Umbilical Cord Blood Transplant for Hematologic Malignancies NCT01622556 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Multi-center Study of Myeloablative Allo Stem Cell Transplant for Non-remission AML Using CloBu4 Regimen NCT01457885 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.