A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of PCS499 for the Treatment of Necrobiosis Lipoidica

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-02-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellscarcinomapatienttherapybiopsy
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningevaluate thevisitinvestigatorthe study
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 66.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Clinical Trial to Evaluate PCS499 in Treating Ulcerations in Patients Who Have Necrobiosis Lipoidica NCT04800562 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, and Efficacy of Repeat Doses of GSK2982772 in Subjects With Psoriasis NCT02776033 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Baricitinib (LY3009104) in the Treatment of Cutaneous Lichen Planus NCT05188521 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Baricitinib in Sjogren's Syndrome NCT05016297 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A First in Human Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of a Intravenous (IV) Dose of GSK2831781 in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Plaque Psoriasis NCT02195349 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.