Age of Blood in Sickle Cell Transfusion
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,012 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-01-11, after 2017-10-04 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellcellstherapypatientreceiving
Phrases that lowered it: blooddayunitsclinicalperiod -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 114 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 428 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 16 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 428 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 114 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Biotin-RBC Transfusion in SCD NCT04426591 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- The Impact of Oxidative Stress on Erythrocyte Biology NCT04028700 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
- Hydroxyurea and Transfusion NCT03644953 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of S303 Treated Red Blood Cells (RBCs)in Subjects With Thalassemia Major Requiring Chronic RBC Transfusion NCT01740531 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Stem Cell Transplantation for Sickle Cell Anemia NCT01877837 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.