Study of TVEC in Patients With Cutaneous Squamous Cell Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcancerbreastdiseasestage
  Phrases that lowered it: cutaneousaminotransferasedrugsingleintended
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 47 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of T-VEC in Locally Advanced Cutaneous Angiosarcoma NCT03921073 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• Talimogene Laherparepvec in Treating Patients With Recurrent Breast Cancer That Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT02658812 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Talimogene Laherparepvec and Panitumumab for the Treatment of Locally Advanced or Metastatic Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Skin NCT04163952 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Ipilimumab, Nivolumab, and Talimogene Laherparepvec Before Surgery in Treating Participants With Localized, Triple-Negative or Estrogen Receptor Positive, HER2 Negative Breast Cancer-deleted NCT04185311 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• Study of Talimogene Laherparepvec In Children With Advanced Non CNS Tumors NCT02756845 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.