Effect of Ertugliflozin on Cardiac Function in Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: failureheartstagecardiacrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: visittype diabetesscreeningeffect ofthe effect
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• ERtugliflozin triAl in DIabetes With Preserved or Reduced ejeCtion FrAcTion mEchanistic Evaluation in Heart Failure NCT03416270 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• A Study To Evaluate The Efficacy And Safety Of Ertugliflozin In Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus And Inadequate Glycemic Control On Metformin Monotherapy (MK-8835-007). NCT02033889 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Ertugliflozin Monotherapy in the Treatment of Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Inadequate Glycemic Control Despite Diet and Exercise (MK-8835-003, VERTIS MONO) NCT01958671 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of EGT0001442 in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT01377844 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Effect of Renal Impairment on the Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, Safety and Tolerability of Ertugliflozin in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (MK-8835-009) NCT01948986 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.