APX005M and Doxorubicin in Advanced Sarcoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: registrationcancerpatients mustleft ventricularradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsthe treatmenttreatment ofefficacysystemic
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 57933 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10851 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Doxorubicin and Pembrolizumab for Sarcoma NCT03056001 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Multi-Arm Study to Test the Efficacy of Immunotherapeutic Agents in Multiple Sarcoma Subtypes NCT02815995 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Durvalumab and Tremelimumab Compared to Doxorubicin in Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Soft Tissue Sarcoma NCT03317457 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Randomized Trial in Advanced, Metastatic or Unresectable Soft Tissue Sarcoma After Failure of Standard Treatments. NCT03838744 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Study of ASP0739 Alone and With Pembrolizumab in Advanced Solid Tumors With NY-ESO-1 Expression Participants NCT04939701 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.