A Study Comparing ATB200/AT2221 With Alglucosidase Alfa/Placebo in Adult Subjects With Late-onset Pompe Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diseasesubjectsubjects withthe followingdefined
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyand safetyefficacy andmalesafety of
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• First-In-Human Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and PK of Intravenous ATB200 Alone and When Co-Administered With Oral AT2221 NCT02675465 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Long-term Safety and Efficacy of ATB200/AT2221 in Adult Subjects With Late-Onset Pompe Disease (LOPD) NCT04138277 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• BMN 701 Phase 3 in rhGAA Exposed Subjects With Late Onset Pompe Disease (INSPIRE Study) NCT01924845 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Safety of AT2220 (Duvoglustat) in Pompe Disease NCT00688597 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated
• Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Enzyme Replacement Therapies Avalglucosidase Alfa and Alglucosidase Alfa Administered Every Other Week in Patients With Late-onset Pompe Disease Who Have Not Been Previously Treated for Pompe Disease NCT02782741 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.