Phase 1b/2a, Open-label Study of Vactosertib in Combination With Durvalumab in Advanced NSCLC
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-05-17, after 2019-02-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: brainenrollmentheartmetastasesprior
Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticslesionsdrugsarthritispatients with -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 19 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Atezolizumab and Varlilumab in Combination With Radiation Therapy for NSCLC NCT04081688 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
- Vactosertib in Combination with Pembrolizumab in Metastatic Colorectal or Gastric Cancer NCT03724851 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- First Line Atezolizumab, Paclitaxel, and Bevacizumab (Avastin®) in mTNBC NCT04408118 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- A Trial With Chemotherapy, Immunotherapy, and Radiotherapy for Patients With Newly Diagnosed Stage IV Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04951115 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
- Evaluating the Efficacy of Atezolizumab in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT03014648 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.