Ph 2 Maintenance Trial: Ixazomib vs Ixazomib-Lenalidomide for MM Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustpatient hasreceivingheart failureuln
  Phrases that lowered it: days beforelenalidomideinvestigatorand safetyefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 179408 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 30360 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Oral Ixazomib Maintenance Therapy in Participants With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma (NDMM) Not Treated With Stem Cell Transplantation (SCT) NCT02312258 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Study of Ixazomib Plus Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Adult Japanese Participants With Relapsed and/or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02917941 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study of Oral Ixazomib Citrate (MLN9708) Maintenance Therapy in Participants With Multiple Myeloma Following Autologous Stem Cell Transplant NCT02181413 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Study of Bendamustine and IXAZOMIB (MLN9708) Plus Dexamethasone in Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02477215 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide With or Without Ixazomib Citrate and Dexamethasone in Treating Patients With Residual Multiple Myeloma After Donor Stem Cell Transplant NCT02389517 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.