Prexasertib in Combination With MEC in Relapsed/Refractory AML and High Risk MDS - a Phase I Trial

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiainstitutionaltransplantmdsacute
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whorefractoryparticipantulnscreening
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 292 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12390 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Bortezomib and Vorinostat in Treating Patients With High-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome or Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT00818649 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Phase II Study of the Combination of Mitoxantrone, Etoposide and Gemtuzumab Ozogamicin (MEGO) for Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia Refractory to Initial Standard Induction Therapy NCT03839446 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Magrolimab, Azacitidine, and Venetoclax for the Treatment of Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT04435691 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Prexasertib (LY2606368), Cytarabine, and Fludarabine in Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia or High-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT02649764 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Study of Plerixafor Combined With Cytarabine and Daunorubicin in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT00990054 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.