Multi-arm Optimization of Stroke Thrombolysis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 27% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-10-31, after 2019-10-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ivpatientcttherapyscan
Phrases that lowered it: kgefficacysingledrugneurological -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 158 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 604 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 604 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 158 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2032 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 178 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 77.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- argatroban, eptifibatide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of the Combination Therapy of Rt-PA and Eptifibatide to Treat Acute Ischemic Stroke (CLEAR-FDR) NCT01977456 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- Randomized Controlled Trial of Argatroban With Tissue Plasminogen Activator (tPA) for Acute Stroke NCT01464788 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Feasibility of Argatroban, Tissue Plasminogen Activator and Intra-arterial Therapy in Stroke NCT02448069 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
- Study of the Combination Therapy of Rt-PA and Eptifibatide to Treat Acute Ischemic Stroke NCT00894803 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Extending the Time for Thrombolysis in Emergency Neurological Deficits NCT00887328 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.