Efficacy and Safety of Four Doses of Cenerimod Compared to Placebo in Adult Subjects With Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsplaceboheartmsdefined
  Phrases that lowered it: mgarthritisthe efficacyand safetyefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Study to Investigate the Biological Activity, Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of ACT-334441 in Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02472795 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of CC-220 in Subjects With Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT03161483 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of SM934 Compared to Placebo in Adult Subjects With Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT03951259 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of CEP-33457 in Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) NCT01135459 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• A Study of DS-7011a in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT05638802 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.