OPTION: A Trial to Assess the Safety & Efficacy of MS1819 in Patients With Exocrine Pancreatic Insufficiency Due to Cystic Fibrosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: pancreatictherapyulnstatusunrelated
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningsafetyefficacyopen labelvisit
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• OPTION 2: A Trial to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of MS1819 in Enteric Capsules in Patients With Cystic Fibrosis NCT04375878 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy and Tolerability of Pancrelipase Microtablet (MT) Capsules for the Treatment of Cystic Fibrosis-dependent Exocrine Pancreatic Insufficiency NCT00662675 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of 2 Pancreatic Enzymes for Treatment of Exocrine Pancreatic Insufficiency in Cystic Fibrosis. NCT01641393 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• SOLUTION: Study of Oral Liprotamase Unit-Matched Therapy Of Non-Porcine Origin in Patients With Cystic Fibrosis NCT02279498 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Study Investigating a Delayed-Release Pancrelipase in Patients With Pancreatic Exocrine Insufficiency (PEI) Due to Cystic Fibrosis (CF) NCT00690820 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.