GC 2nd Line Durvalumab(MEDI4736)/Tremelimumab Plus Paclitaxel Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancersubjectpatientchronicin situ
  Phrases that lowered it: linefemalemaleto evaluatescreening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 146 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 41255 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9185 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Open-Label, Multi-Centre, Study to Assess the Safety of Fixed-Dose Durvalumab + Tremelimumab Combination Therapy or Durvalumab Monotherapy in Advanced Solid Malignancies. NCT03084471 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Metronomic Oral Vinorelbine Plus Anti-PD-L1/Anti-CTLA4 ImmunothErapy in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumours NCT03518606 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Durvalumab and Tremelimumab in Treating Participants With Recurrent or Refractory Ovarian, Primary Peritoneal, or Fallopian Tube Cancer NCT03026062 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Tremelimumab and Durvalumab With or Without Radiation Therapy in Patients With Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02701400 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Trial of Neoadjuvant Durvalumab Plus Docetaxel, Oxaliplatin, S-1 Followed by Surgery and Adjuvant Durvalumab Plus S-1 Chemotherapy in Potentially Resectable MMR Proficient Gastric or Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma NCT04221555 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.