A Study of LY3415244 in Participants With Advanced Solid Tumors
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-10-09, after 2018-11-22 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “safety”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: biopsydiseaseevidencetherapyprior
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsvaccineevaluate theto evaluate -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 1205 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1205 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 140 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY3434172, a PD-1 and PD-L1 Bispecific Antibody, in Advanced Cancer NCT03936959 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
- A Study of LY3321367 Alone or With LY3300054 in Participants With Advanced Relapsed/Refractory Solid Tumors NCT03099109 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Study of Anti-PD-L1 Checkpoint Antibody (LY3300054) Alone and in Combination in Participants With Advanced Refractory Solid Tumors NCT02791334 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- A Study of CDX-585 in Patients With Advanced Malignancies NCT05788484 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- Study of INBRX-105 and INBRX-105 With Pembrolizumab in Patients With Solid Tumors Including Head and Neck Cancer NCT03809624 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.