Safinamide for Multiple System Atrophy (MSA)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: dementiaprobablerandomizationprogressiveplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsevaluate theto evaluatevisit
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safinamide in Levodopa Induced Dyskinesia in Parkinson's Disease Subjects NCT01113320 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Safinamide in Idiopathic Parkinson's Disease (IPD) With Motor Fluctuations, as add-on to Levodopa NCT00627640 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Effect of Safinamide on Levodopa Pharmacokinetics NCT01026428 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Safinamide, as add-on Therapy, in Idiopathic Chinese Parkinson's Disease (PD) Patients With Motor Fluctuations Treated With Stable Doses of Levodopa NCT03881371 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safinamide's Effect on Dopamine and Serotonin's Availability by Using Brain Imaging NCT01264861 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.