Proof of Concept Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of MIJ821 in Patients With Treatment-resistant Depression

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: depressivepatientsdepressiondsmcell
  Phrases that lowered it: acutemalehourspharmacokineticsdrugs
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1194 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 161 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Explore the Efficacy of JNJ-67953964 in the Treatment of Depression NCT03559192 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of JNJ-42847922 Versus Quetiapine Extended-Release as Adjunctive Therapy to Antidepressants in Adult Participants With Major Depressive Disorder Who Have Responded Inadequately to Antidepressant Therapy NCT03321526 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Evaluate of Single and Multiple Oral Doses of GM-1020 in Patients With MDD NCT06309277 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Tolerability of Riluzole in Treatment Resistant Depression NCT01204918 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of MIJ821 in Addition to Comprehensive Standard of Care on the Rapid Reduction of Symptoms of Major Depressive Disorder in Subjects Who Have Suicidal Ideation With Intent NCT04722666 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.