BX-1 in Spasticity Due to Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicplacebomsinjurycondition
  Phrases that lowered it: clinical trialand safetyefficacy andsafety ofanti
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of the Effect of Nabiximols Oromucosal Spray on Clinical Measures of Spasticity in Participants With Multiple Sclerosis NCT04984278 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
• Trial to Evaluate the Effect of Nabiximols Oromucosal Spray on Clinical Measures of Spasticity in Participants With Multiple Sclerosis NCT04657666 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Safety and Effectiveness of Nabiximols Oromucosal Spray as Add-on Therapy in Participants With Spasticity Due to Multiple Sclerosis NCT04203498 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy Study of Arbaclofen to Treat Spasticity in Multiple Sclerosis NCT01743651 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Long-term Safety of Arbaclofen Extended-Release Tablets for Patients With Spasticity Due to MS NCT03319732 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.