A Study of LCAR-B38M CAR-T Cells, a Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-cell (CAR-T) Therapy Directed Against B-cell Maturation Antigen (BCMA) in Chinese Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-10-20, after 2019-01-23 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ventricularheartcellstherapycardiac
Phrases that lowered it: myelomaand safetyefficacy andparticipantsparticipant -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ciltacabtagene autoleucel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Anti-CD38 CAR-T in Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT03464916 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- A Study of CC-98633, BCMA-targeted Chimeric Antigen Receptor (CAR) T Cells, in Participants With Relapsed and/or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT04394650 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- APRIL CAR T Cells (AUTO2) Targeting BCMA and TACI for the Treatment of Multiple Myeloma NCT03287804 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
- BCMA-directed CAR-T Cell Therapy in Adult Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT04318327 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
- Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of JCARH125 in Subjects With Relapsed and/or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT03430011 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.