A Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of SER-287 in Adults With Active Mild-to-Moderate Ulcerative Colitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: colitisulcerativeto screeningucmultiple
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofreceivedsubjects who
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 5988 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Microbiome Dynamics of SER-287 in Subjects With Mild-to-Moderate Ulcerative Colitis NCT02618187 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• ABX464 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT03093259 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• A Study of Mirikizumab (LY3074828) in Participants With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT02589665 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Efavaleukin Alfa in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT04987307 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of Microbial Ecosystem Therapeutic-2 (MET-2) in Patients With Ulcerative Colitis (UC) NCT03832400 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.