Study With Paclitaxel +/- Ramucirumab in Patients With Squamous-cell Carcinoma of the Esophagus After Prior Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicprior tocancermonths priorbreast
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationdrugsdays beforeplatinumgel
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 47950 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9336 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ramucirumab Plus FOLFIRI Versus Ramucirumab Plus Paclitaxel in Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Gastric Cancer, Who Failed One Prior Line of Palliative Chemotherapy NCT03081143 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Regorafenib in Combination With TAS-102 in Subjects With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Who Have Progressed After Standard Therapy NCT03305913 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Ramucirumab Plus Irinotecan for Previously Treated Advanced Gastric or Gastro-esophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma NCT03141034 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Platinum Chemotherapy Plus Paclitaxel With Bevacizumab and Atezolizumab in Metastatic Carcinoma of the Cervix NCT03556839 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Regorafenib Second Line Treatment of Metastatic or Advanced Upper GI Cancers NCT02241720 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.