Effects of Metformin in a Non-Diabetic Patient Population
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (106 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-03-31, after 2019-01-22 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: inflammatoryevidencediabeticfailureanesthesia
Phrases that lowered it: metforminstudysubjectsand 30formulation -
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 55 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 246990 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 39555 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 64.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- metformin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effect of Metformin on Frailty in 12 Subjects NCT03451006 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
- Antecedent Metabolic Health and Metformin Aging Study NCT04264897 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Trial of Metformin for Colorectal Cancer Risk Reduction for History of Colorectal Adenomas and Elevated BMI NCT01312467 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- The Effect of Metformin on Composition of Human Gut Bacteria NCT02546050 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Metformin's Effect on Glucagon-induced Glucose Production and Protein Metabolism. NCT01956929 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.