Association of Radiochemotherapy and Immunotherapy for the Treatment of Unresectable Oesophageal caNcer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationheartsyndromeprior tocancer
  Phrases that lowered it: days beforehcvlaboratorytrialhepatitis
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 107605 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 20725 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial of Neoadjuvant Durvalumab Plus Docetaxel, Oxaliplatin, S-1 Followed by Surgery and Adjuvant Durvalumab Plus S-1 Chemotherapy in Potentially Resectable MMR Proficient Gastric or Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma NCT04221555 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Chemoradiation Followed by Durvalumab in Poor Risk and/or Elderly Patients With Stage III NSCLC NCT04441138 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Phase II Study of Durvalumab ,Doxorubicin, and Ifosfamide in Pulmonary Sarcomatoid Carcinoma NCT04224337 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Durvalumab (MEDI4736) With or Without SBRT in Clinical Stage I, II and IIIA Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02904954 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• FRAIL-IMMUNE (GORTEC 2018-03) - Combination of Durvalumab With Carboplatin/Paclitaxel NCT03723967 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.